Situation Analysis
Country Situation:
The population of Tajikistan is approximately 7.3 million, of which over 73% live in rural areas and 40% is under the age of 18. The country is faced with challenging geography, as it is 93% mountainous and landlocked, with limited access to other regions. Following the civil war period (1992/97), Tajikistan slowly transitioned from the status of post-conflict recovery requiring direct humanitarian assistance into an economically viable nation state, promoting sustainable development based upon nascent democratic and market economy principles.
Tajikistan faces significant challenges in terms of its struggling national economy, fragmented administration, and considerable capacity constraints (in human and financial resources). The country often faces natural disasters, electricity supply shortages, and threats to food security, which negatively impact economic growth and human development. These ongoing challenges require the continued support of UNDP, in partnership with the government and other national partners, as well as with other UN and international agencies.
MDG Achievement and Poverty Reduction: Tajikistan is making progress towards reducing poverty: from 1999-2008, the number of people living with less than $2.15 USD per day decreased from 81% to 55%. However, Tajikistan still ranks in the bottom quartile on the 2008 Human Development Index (124th out of 179 countries) and has even slipped two spots since 2007.
In 2000 The Republic of Tajikistan signed the UN Millennium Declaration. A detailed assessment of resources required for MDG achievement was completed by the Government, in partnership with UNDP, in 2005. The MDG Needs Assessment report provided a comprehensive analysis of development trends and major challenges and formulated key policy directions necessary to accelerate progress. It was identified that a large resource gap existed and concluded that donors would need to double the amount of aid to help the country to meet its MDG targets by 2015.
To identify and plan the country’s development priorities alongside the national Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Republic of Tajikistan adopted its National Development Strategy (NDS) from 2007-2015. This strategy was further complemented by the Poverty Reduction Strategy, an implementation instrument for the NDS. Since these strategies were developed, Tajikistan has faced unanticipated development challenges, notably arising from a compound water, energy and food crisis, and further exacerbated by the 2008-2009 global economic crisis.
Economic Development: With macro-economic stability since 2000, Tajikistan’s economy has grown significantly. Annual GDP growth has averaged 9% since 2000 (7% in 2008), driven principally by cotton and aluminium exports, as well as remittance incomes from Tajik migrants working abroad. In 2008, 33% of the economically active population was engaged in external labour migration and remittances represented approximately 50% of GDP6. However, since that time, Tajikistan's macro‐economic short and medium-term economic outlooks have deteriorated and remain very fragile, with slowing GDP growth, high inflation levels, and growing energy and water insecurities. Tajikistan has already strongly felt the impact of the financial crisis through reductions in export revenues, an anticipated 30% decrease in remittance inflows (from 2008), and decreased foreign capital infusions. While Tajikistan will benefit from the steep drops in international oil prices, lower import prices, and decreasing inflation levels (officially at 11-14%), these gains are unlikely to offset the losses from remittances, especially in light of raising prices for hydrocarbon products in 2009. As Tajikistan’s entrepreneurship spirit is still limited, self-employment and income generating opportunities among rural people are in the initial stages of development. According to the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection and the World Bank, the rate of unemployment in 2008 reached 33%
Gender issues continue to be a development challenge that restricts economic growth. Economic activity among women remains lower than men, primarily as a result of socio-demographic factors. Women experience unequal access and control over resources (e.g. property, land, credit, etc.) and a much higher proportion of women work in lower skill occupations, as compared to men. For example, only 1% of privatized land owners are women even though they make up approximately 70% of the agricultural workforce. The Government has initiated the process of creating a new Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS).The new PRS will maintain continuity with its original 2007-2009 priorities, as well as the goals of NDS and MDGs and should be developed by the end of 2009. In terms of rural entrepreneurship, women do not have equitable access to support resources (e.g. vocational training, micro‐credit, advisory services, etc).
Democratic Governance: The capacity to develop and implement sound public policy based on solid governance principles and respect for human rights is developing, both at the national and sub-national levels in Tajikistan. Progress has been made: an integrated approach was taken for the development of the Public Administration Reform Strategy, the Concept of Enhancement of Public Administration, as well as other concepts approved by the President of the country. At the national level and under the Presidential Administration, a project is being implemented on Public Sector Reform. However, the following areas require additional support: coordination of development initiatives, public finance management, delivery of core public services, and planning and decision-making.
There is an opportunity to involve local self‐governing bodies in planning and budgeting processes through the established network of 404 Jamoats (self-governance institutions operating at the lowest administrative level as a municipality body: the sub‐district level). While the legislative framework regulating Jamoat activities is currently under review, the expected revisions are likely to bring about positive changes and greater autonomy.
Unfortunately, the political participation of women has considerably decreased since independence. In 2005 Parliamentary elections, only 11 women (18% of the total) were elected to the Majlisi Namoyandagon (national level), and only 12% to the Majlisi Milli (oblast level). The percentage of women representatives in local government is even lower: 4%, 7%, and 11% at the oblast, district and municipal levels, respectively10.
Border Security: Effective border management has emerged at the forefront of Tajikistan’s domestic and foreign political agenda, largely as a result of the increasingly unstable situation in Afghanistan, which is now moving through northern Afghanistan and already approaching Tajikistan. Tajikistan faces risks posed from international terrorist and religious-extremist organizations, drug and weapons smuggling, and illegal migration. However, present systems of border management are inadequate to address such issues and insufficient to meet the challenges of the future. While the responsibility for border security was handed over from Russian Federation border guards to Tajik authorities in 2005, the management model has not yet developed sufficiently to meet international standards, this applies particularly to the principles of transparency, trade development, Border Crossing Point efficiency, and infrastructure development.
Disaster Risk Management and Crisis Prevention: Tajikistan is highly disaster‐prone, as a result of its topography (93% of the territory is mountainous) and its location in one of the most seismically active locations in the world. Each year, houses, roads, bridges and other key infrastructure elements are destroyed or damaged as a result of floods, mudflows, landslides, avalanches, and earthquakes. On average, Tajikistan faces about 100 natural disasters; however, this number is highly variable: there were approximately 450 and 300 disasters in 2004 and 2005, respectively.
The majority of the disasters are earthquakes, mudflows, avalanches, and landslides, largely as a result of heavy precipitation. In 2008, difficult winter conditions led to the outbreak of the compound crisis in the country. According to estimates, this crisis cost the economy $850 million in damages and lost revenue. Natural disasters dominated the first half of 2009, particularly in April and May, resulting in overall damages of $100 million USD.
Although civil conflict within the country has now become a limited risk, remnants of the recent civil war remain. Landmines along Tajikistan’s borders and its central region continue to threaten local populations. Between 1992 and 2008, there have been 793 mine accidents, including 352 fatalities. Currently, 456,790 people live in mine‐affected areas, 70% of which are women and children. Mine‐contaminated areas restrict the opportunity to use land for grazing and agricultural purposes and represent a serious risk to civil populations engaged in farming, wood gathering, grazing and other rural activities. Over 14,860,000 m² of land remain under mine and Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) threat. As only 7 % of the country is suitable for irrigation, this represents a considerable economic opportunity cost for Tajikistan’s rural communities.
More than 20% of the Tajik-Afghan border (TAB) is mine-contaminated. While mine clearance activities are ongoing on the Tajik-Afghan border, clearance activities have not yet been initiated on the Tajik-Uzbek border (TUB), as it is dependent on pending political decisions between these governments. A further 36 Suspected Hazardous Areas (SHAs) with an approximate total size of 3,454,261 m² remain in central Tajikistan.
Since 2003, mine action has been consolidated under the leadership of TMAC (Tajikistan Mine Action Center). TMAC’s primary objective is to ensure Tajikistan’s compliance with the requirements of the Ottawa Convention on banning landmines (APMBT). Currently, TMAC does not have sufficient national capacity to fulfill these obligations, largely as a result of: a 4-year delay in start date; manual intensity of demining; removal difficulties due to mountainous terrain and weather conditions; financing complications; inaccurate minefield records; and Uzbekistan border disputes. As of now, the Extension request to Article 5 obligations for APMBT is under review.
Energy, Natural Resource Management, and Environmental Sustainability: Due to the tight interrelationship, all three areas must be addressed simultaneously; otherwise, advances in one area could be accomplished at the expense of another. Unfortunately, local communities are unaware of the implications related to overgrazing, overharvesting, improper land use, climate change and other environmental challenges, and do not possess the skills or resources to prevent these issues.
Energy: Access to reliable energy continues to be one of the critical development issues facing Tajikistan. It is estimated that over 1 million people in Tajikistan, primarily in rural areas, have little or no access to an adequate energy supply. Almost every winter, as a result of Tajikistan’s dependence on unreliable electricity imports, the country is faced with an energy crisis, where rural areas only have access to between 4 and 8 hours of electricity a day. An unreliable electricity supply constrains income-generating activities and has severe environmental consequences (e.g. forest destruction, soil degradation, water access, and food insecurity), as many rural populations burn conventional biomass and fossil fuels to meet their energy needs.
Natural Resource Management: As approximately two-thirds of the rural population rely on agriculture for at least 50% of their income, agricultural management is an important contributor to rural livelihoods. Unfortunately, most agricultural development policies and approaches originate from the past Soviet era, which placed little value on sustainable natural resource management and are not adapted to imminent climate change impacts. It is estimated that some level of land degradation currently affects approximately 97.6% of arable land in the country. Water management remains an issue, with only 20% of the rural population (700,000) using water from the centralized water supply systems (as compared to 1.5 million or 87% of urban residents). This leaves nearly 4.2 million people using water from springs, wells, irrigation canals, and other unsanitary sources.
Environmental Sustainability: Since early 2000, Tajikistan capital city, Dushanbe, has experienced a rapid expansion in the use of private motor vehicles, resulting in a significant increase in urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (an estimated 87% of total air emissions in Dushanbe are attributed to transportation). At this rate, emissions are expected to triple by 2020. Another threat to air quality is the disposal of uranium tailings in northern Tajikistan. Landslides, flooding, and earthquakes result in radioactive uranium wastes being washed into water sources for consumption and irrigation. Another opportunity related to environmental sustainability is the more effective management of Tajikistan’s “Protected Areas” (21% of the country’s land area is dedicated to the protection and maintenance of biological diversity).
HIV and AIDS / Tuberculosis and Malaria: Tajikistan’s healthcare system in the post‐Soviet period has been severely affected by civil war, economic collapse, and a dramatic decline in health financing. Tajikistan’s health sector budget is only 1.2% of GDP, which covers only 16% of total health sector expenditure.
When compared directly against other development issue, HIV/AIDS may appear to be a comparatively minor issue in Tajikistan; however, there is a risk of an exponential increase. Over the last decade, the number of officially registered HIV cases has skyrocketed, increasing from 119 in 2000 to 1422 in May 2009. (However, current estimates suggest the HIV/AIDS epidemic inflicts much more than this, approximately 6,800 people). In recent years, the rate of HIV has risen among injecting drug users (IDU), commercial sex workers (CSW) and prisoners, the main drivers of the epidemic. From 2005 to 2008, HIV prevalence varied from 15% to 19 % among IDUs, 0.7% to 1.8% for CSW, and 6.5% to 6.4% for prisoners. Furthermore, HIV is spreading rapidly among other demographic groups, such as labor migrants and young people.
Approximately 81% of cases are registered among men and 19% among women (increasing from 16% in 2004). While the government has taken the first steps in addressing this issue through the formulation of the National Programme on HIV/AIDS (2007) and the establishment of the National Coordination Committee for HIV/AIDS Prevention, a commensurate effort has not been made to provide government funding to HIV/AIDS projects. This financing gap has largely been filled by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria (GFATM).
Tajikistan has the highest estimated morbidity rate of TB in the WHO European Region in 2007 (322 per 100,000: all ages, all forms). However, the detection rate is still low: only 39% for all new cases and 32% for new smear positive cases. Of significant concern is the high estimated rate of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB): 16% of MDR–TB cases are attributed to patients who never receive treatment while 41% of these cases involve patients receiving previous TB treatment.
For a decade, malaria was one of the major development challenges in Tajikistan, particularly along the Tajik-Afghan border. In 1997, the number of malaria cases reported reached its peak, when nearly 30,000 cases were registered. However, in the last five years, the reported malaria cases have significantly reduced from 3588 cases in 2004 to 312 in 2008. This is largely attributed to the expansion of national malaria control efforts supported by the GFATM. To successfully eliminate Tajikistan’s malaria threat, a sustainable strategy is required, moving from reactive activities designed to interrupt the spread of malaria to pro-active measures to prevent and eradicate the disease.
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