Country Context

General data: Tajikistan, the poorest country in Europe and CIS Region (53% percent of the population in 2007), is undergoing severe domestic and external pressures. On the external side, with Al Qaida under pressure in Afghanistan and Pakistan, some of the militants are expected to end up in Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries. Domestically, there is public dissatisfaction with government efforts to resolve pressing social and economic problems. However, President Emomali Rakhmon is credited with restoring peace and stability following the civil war in 1992-1997. The global financial crisis has increased economic hardships, most notably in a major decline in workers remittances (which account for nearly 50% of GDP). The country is relying heavily on international financial assistance, including a three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) from the IMF.

Energy situation: Since the Soviet days, a regional power grid system has been in place, which allowed the region-wide distribution of hydro-electricity generated in the system. A key feature of this central grid system was to restrict the generation and use of hydro power in the winter by the upstream riparian countries (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) so as to store up water for irrigation use in the summer for the downstream countries (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan). Upstream countries were compensated for restricting the release of water—and hence power generation when they needed it most—during the winter months by the provision of gas, coal and oil fuel from the downstream countries. Unfortunately this system has recently fallen apart, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan withdrawing from the central grid system. This action has left Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan particularly vulnerable, coming as it does on top of the recurring water/energy/food security problems, especially during severe winters. This has led to enhanced efforts by Tajikistan to build the Roghun dam.

Republic of Tajikistan: Basic Facts

GDP (US$ bln.): 13.19 (2008 est.)
12.22 (2007 est.), 11.34 (2006 est.)

GDP per capita (US$): 1,800 (2008 est.)
1,700 (2007 est.), 1,600 (2006 est.)

Real GDP growth (%)

2006	7.0
2007	7.8
2008	7.9
2009	3.4

Inflation (%): 13.1 (2007), 20.5 (2008)

External debt (US$ bn): 1.50 (year-end 2008), 1.56 (2007 est.)

Population: 7.4 m (2009 estimate)
Population growth (%): 1.9 (est. 2008-9)
Ethnic composition: Biggest groups: Tajik – 79.9%, Uzbek – 15.3%, Russian – 1.1%, Kyrgyz – 1.1%, other – 2.6%.
Religion: Muslim – 90%, Russian Orthodox 1.2%, other 8.8%.
Total area: 143,100 sq km
Capital city: Dushanbe

Head of State: President Emomali Rakhmon (since 6 November 1994)
Elections: President elected by popular vote for a seven-year term (eligible for a second term); election last held 6 November 2006 (next to be held in November 2013); Prime Minister appointed by the President
Main political parties: People's Democratic Party; Agrarian Party; Democratic Party; Social Democratic Party; Socialist Party; Tajik Communist Party. Last parliamentary elections held on 28 February 2010, PDP received 71.69 % of votes.

HDI ranking: 122 of 183 countries
Poverty: 60% (2006)

World Bank Doing Business Report of 2009 placed Tajikistan among the top ten reformers in the area of facilitation of opening and operating businesses.
WTO: Membership negotiations underway.

World Bank: The strategic focus of the proposed Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) 2010-2013 has been guided by the issues and the lessons from the previous CAS implementation. The program will, therefore, continue to deepen the reform agenda that will reduce the impact of the crisis while pursuing necessary reforms. The strategic objectives of the CAS are to reduce the impact of the current crisis on poverty and vulnerability; and to pave the way for sustainable and inclusive growth post-crisis.

EU: A Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the EU and Tajikistan was signed in October 2004 and it is currently being ratified by the EU Member States, while it has already been ratified by Tajikistan. Pending its ratification, an Interim Agreement on trade and trade-related matters is being implemented since May 2005.The future EC assistance will focus on the following priority areas: rural development and poverty reduction, agriculture and land reform, promotion of good governance and economic reforms.

Brief history timeline to independence:

c 2500 - Aryan followers of King Yama crossed the Oxus River from Central Asia into Tajikistan and created a new calendar with the new year (Now Roz, Now-Ruz) marked by spring.

999 - Turkish dynasties became the rulers of Transoxania, and area that covered much of what later became Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.

1924 - Stalin divided remnants of Turkestan into the current Central Asian republics.

1929 - Tajikistan was created by Stalin to divide and rule the ethnic Muslim peoples of Central Asia.

1963 - The Soviet Union planned to harness hydroelectric power and feed a huge aluminum smelter in Tajikistan.

1991 - Tajikistan gained independence from the Soviet Union.

1992 - Civil war and fighting between the Russian-backed government and rebels began. It lasted to 1997.

1996 - Dec 4, Government troops repulsed an attack by Islamic rebels. Pres. Emomali Rakhmonov was to meet with the Muslim opposition. Russia had 25,000 troops guarding the 900-mile border with Afghanistan where the rebels had bases.

1997 - Apr 30, Pres. Emomali Rakhmon was wounded in a grenade attack on his car in the city of Khodzhent.

1997 - Jun 27, A Tajikistan formal peace accord was signed in Moscow that was brokered by Russia and Iran. A power sharing arrangement was foreseen between Pres. Emomali Rakhmon and opposition leader Said Abdullo. At least 50,000 people were killed during the 5-year civil war.

2003 - Jun 22, Tajiks voted on changes to their constitution that would allow President Emomali Rakhmon to potentially stay in power for another 17 years. An overwhelming majority of voters approved the constitutional change.

Data sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; UNDP Human Development Report 2007/8, BBC, CIA World Factbook.

***