Asia Plus News, 16 August: MASSIVE FLOOD FROM LAKE SAREZ MAY NEVER HAPPEN: WORLD BANK

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#153 (1812) August 16 2005 issued every day  (except Saturday & Sunday)

 EMERGENCIES

MASSIVE FLOOD FROM LAKE SAREZ MAY NEVER HAPPEN: WORLD BANK DUSHANBE, August 16, Asia-Plus /Olga Nosko/ --- "On July 13, an early warning system sounded an alarm because the water level at the Lake Sarez's Usoy Dam had risen by more than 25 centimeters within 24 hours-a potentially perilous development, press release issued by the World Bank Dushanbe Office on August 15 said.

A reconnaissance mission to the lake was immediately dispatched, and is still on-site monitoring the lake.  Although it was not the emergency first feared, the early warning system provided an opportunity to ensure that any imminent danger would have been known about early enough to save lives.  The probability of a massive flood from Lake Sarez is low, experts say.  But should such a flood occur, the impact on the downstream valleys would be devastating, affecting up to 5 million people living along the valleys of the Bartang, Panj, and Amu Darya rivers as they cross Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

The early warning system at Lake Sarez, completed in December 2004, is part of a World Bank project that is helping to alert and prepare those most vulnerable to flooding from Lake Sarez and other natural hazards such as mudslides, rockfalls, and avalanches.  Before the project was implemented, monitoring at the lake was spotty, said Qadam Maskayev, Head of the Usoy Department, which is responsible for the operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early warning systems installed under the project.  "Now, we get data on a daily basis, including the level of the lake and meteorological information such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed.  We can monitor the 'behavior' of Lake Sarez in real time," he said.

Significant progress has been made since the project was launched in 2000 as a partnership among the Tajik government, the World Bank, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, the Aga Khan Foundation, USAID, and others.  The monitoring and early warning systems are effective in detecting a rise in the lake's level, and Usoy Dam staff, who have received comprehensive training on the operation and maintenance of the systems, are responding to the warnings.  In addition, the project is providing training on evacuation and survival, and is building the capacity of local NGOs and government agencies to rescue survivors, and supply safe haven areas for evacuees.  "The surrounding population has been trained on how to respond to an emergency," said Qadam Maskayev.  "And everyone likely to be affected by a flood from the lake will get information in an emergency."   Radio communications systems have been installed in most settlements in the Bartang valley, and in some parts of the Panj Valley.

"The project is crucially important for Tajikistan," said Rita Cestti, World Bank Team Leader for the project.  "An operational system, a functional monitoring system, and trained government personnel are the best assets any country could expect to have to be prepared to manage unusual hydrological events such as a massive flood."

Such a massive flood from Lake Sarez may never happen.  But Tajikistan and its neighbors are now prepared to mitigate against what the UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs once said could become "the deadliest natural disaster in history."

High up in Tajikistan's Pamir mountains lies Lake Sarez, one of Central Asia's largest reservoirs.  Among the country's most stunning natural resources, it is also one of its most potentially dangerous.

The lake, in eastern Tajikistan, was formed after an earthquake in 1911.

Fears have long been expressed that another major earthquake or other natural event might rupture the dam holding back the water.